After the rapid growth of NVIDIA, AMD, Microsoft and other players in the artificial intelligence ( AI ) sphere , the market has begun to estimate real profits more cautiously . Investors are faced with the question : will AI remain the main driver of growth , or is it time for a correction . As of today, Nvidia controls between 70% and 95% of the AI GPU market , thanks to early investments and the CUDA ecosystem. However, even the leaders are not immune to mood swings : after the announcement of the new Blackwell Ultra chips Nvidia shares fell more than 3% as the market begins to realize that even the strongest players will have to live up to expectations with real profits , not just flashy presentations , according to financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh.
Nvidia’s advantage is based on its CUDA ecosystem, which locks customers into its solutions . However, competition from AMD and Intel is heating up , with AMD already showing competitive products and Intel ramping up its AI investments due to contracts with Amazon and the US government . Any fluctuations in global GPU demand or supply disruptions could significantly alter industry leadership .
At the same time, the market is closely watching the growth potential of new players such as Qualcomm and Chinese manufacturers who are investing heavily in their own neural processing solutions . Nvidia’s continued dominance will depend on its ability to maintain technology leadership in a changing global competitive environment .
The Second Wave of AI : Possibility or Illusion ?
Investors are comparing today’s boom to the late 1990s , when the tech sector enjoyed a double-dip boom . According to According to Yahoo Finance , the current AI boom is being reformatted into two directions : the first is the dominance of infrastructure (Nvidia, Microsoft, Vertiv), the second is the development of specialized software (Palantir, C3.ai).
Companies that offer unique AI applications are expected to be the real stars of the second wave . ARK Invest predicts that AI software could unlock up to $80 trillion in market value over the next decade . “The second wave of AI innovation is like the second wave of the internet boom : those who successfully integrate AI into business models will become the new leaders , ” explains Chaslau Koniukh.
At the same time , competition among AI startups is growing , and the market will be ruthless to those who fail to turn technological solutions into viable business models .
The second wave involves a more rigorous selection of winners : investors are increasingly looking for companies that not only use AI , but can also scale profitable solutions in real sectors – from healthcare to cybersecurity . Those that can demonstrate rapid revenue growth will gain an advantage in the next stage of the market struggle .
Bubble threat : excessive expectations ?
Analysts warn of the risks of an “AI bubble” forming . Many companies are showing valuations that significantly outpace their actual revenues , for example , OpenAI is valued at $300 billion with no profitability .
In particular , Koniukh highlights the following risks :
• overvalued startups with short-term contracts for server capacity ( 5-7 years versus 15 years previously );
• risk of technological obsolescence of expensive equipment within 2–3 years ;
• high market volatility due to Chinese competition .
cautious about the AI boom , even if the fundamental drivers remain strong .
Signs of market overheating are already evident in the high sensitivity of quotes to news about any changes in regulation or subsidy policies for technology industries . Against this backdrop, investors should be especially attentive to the valuations of companies offering solutions based on generative AI , since this segment appears to be the most speculatively overheated .
Real Drivers of Demand : Data Centers and Human Intelligence
Despite the risks , the fundamental demand for AI infrastructure is only growing . According to forecasts by Chaslau Koniukh, hyperscalers ( large-scale data centers , – ed .) will invest $371 billion in the construction of new data centers in 2025 alone .
In parallel, the concept of “authentic intelligence” is developing – a combination of AI with human critical thinking , emotional intelligence and creativity . According to the World Economic Forum , technological innovation alone is not enough : companies must invest in human capital development to remain competitive .
Countries that can balance technology adoption and skills development will gain a strategic advantage in the global economy .
Another important factor will be the willingness of states and corporations to develop educational programs focused on the synergy between humans and machines . Investments in improving the skills of workers will help avoid mass layoffs and create new employment models in a world where AI is becoming commonplace .
The artificial intelligence market is moving from the expansion stage to the maturity stage . The infrastructure boom has laid the foundation , and now the main intrigue is who will be the winner in the software and applications sphere . Investors must learn to distinguish real business models from hype promises . Success will go to those who can ensure long-term financial sustainability , and not just create a buzz around their products .
In the short term, the market may face increased volatility due to corrections and risk reassessment . However, in the long term, AI will remain one of the most important drivers of transformation of the global economy , creating new opportunities for innovation and investment .
Investors willing to combine a cautious strategy with deep business model analysis will not only be able to weather potential market shocks , but also lay the foundations for significant capital growth over the next 5-10 years .
“The current correction is not the end of the AI boom , but its maturation . Those who are able to combine innovation with real profit will remain on the market , ” sums up financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh.
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